The Minnesota Timberwolves enter Monday night’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings as heavy favorites — not because of dominance, but because of absence. With Domantas Sabonis sidelined for multiple weeks due to a torn meniscus, the Kings (5-13) are reeling, while the Timberwolves (10-7) are riding a seven-win stretch in their last ten games. The game tips off at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento at 10:00 p.m. EST on November 24, 2025, with point spreads hovering between -9.5 and -10.5 for Minnesota and an over/under set at 237.5 to 239.5 points.
Why the Kings Are Struggling Without Sabonis
The absence of Domantas Sabonis isn’t just a statistical hole — it’s a structural collapse. The All-Star center was Sacramento’s engine: rebounding, playmaking, and anchoring their half-court offense. Without him, the Kings are averaging just 15.1 offensive rebounds per game, the third-lowest in the league. That’s nearly three fewer than the NBA average. Their scoring has dipped to 109.4 points per home game this season, well below their 115.7 mark from last year. And yet, oddly enough, they’ve covered the spread in two of their last three games — including a rare win over the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. But that win came without Sabonis, and it might’ve been a mirage.The Timberwolves’ Quiet Rise
Minnesota hasn’t been flashy, but they’ve been consistent. Seven of their last ten wins came by double digits. Their road offense is averaging 122.9 points over the last ten games — nearly 14 more than Sacramento’s home defense has allowed this season. Minnesota Timberwolves have also outscored opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game since November 1. Naz Reid, their sixth-man big, has quietly become a matchup nightmare. He dropped 12 and 13 points in the last two meetings against Sacramento this season — and now, without Sabonis guarding the paint, he’s poised to explode. Action Network’s betting analyst flagged Naz Reid Over 12.5 Points (-122) as their top play, calling it a "buy-low" opportunity after his quiet 9-point game against Phoenix.Historical Trends That Can’t Be Ignored
The head-to-head history between these two teams tells a story: away teams have won 31 of 56 matchups. But here’s the twist — Sacramento has lost the first quarter in six of their last seven home games against Minnesota. In fact, they’ve lost the opening frame in their last six games overall this season. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a pattern. The Kings start slow. They trail early. And when they do, they’re forced into a desperate, high-pace style that opens the door for Minnesota’s transition game. Scores24’s editorial team recommends backing Minnesota with a -6.5 spread — not because they expect a blowout, but because Sacramento’s first-quarter collapses are almost ritualistic.
Betting Trends: Money, Lines, and Hidden Clues
Oddsmakers have shifted the line from an opener of -6.5 to as high as -10.5. Public betting is split: 54% of tickets are on Minnesota, but 53% of the actual money is on Sacramento. That’s the classic "smart money" signal. It suggests sharp bettors see value in the underdog — perhaps because of Sacramento’s recent home over trends. BetMGM’s data shows the Kings have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 home games. They’ve also hit the 4th Quarter Total Over in 19 of their last 29 home games — meaning, even when they’re down, they pour it on late. That could push the final score past 240 points, despite Minnesota’s slower pace.Expert Projections and Final Predictions
Sports Illustrated’s computer model predicts a Timberwolves 120, Kings 115 final score — a 5-point win, right in the middle of the spread. Pickswise notes the Under is 5-2 for Sacramento in their last seven games, but that’s misleading. Those games were mostly low-scoring shootouts against defensive teams. Against Minnesota, who ranks 12th in pace and 7th in points allowed per 100 possessions, this could be a different story. The last time these teams met — November 14, 2025 — Minnesota won 124-110 on a 240.5 total. That game had Sabonis. This one doesn’t. Expect more chaos, more transition, more points.
What’s Next?
If Minnesota wins by double digits, it could solidify their spot in the Western Conference top four. But if Sacramento pulls off the upset — even by five — it would be the most significant win of their season and could spark a late-season resurgence. Either way, the absence of Domantas Sabonis has turned this from a routine road game into a pivotal moment for both franchises.Frequently Asked Questions
How does Sabonis’ absence impact Sacramento’s chances?
Without Domantas Sabonis, the Kings lose their primary playmaker, rebounder, and defensive anchor. Their offensive rebounding has dropped to 15.1 per game (3rd worst in the NBA), and their half-court execution has become predictable. Teams are now able to sag off their perimeter shooters, knowing there’s no interior threat to punish them. Their win over Denver was an outlier — a rare high-efficiency night without their star.
Why is the public betting on Minnesota but the money on Sacramento?
The 54% public betting split favors Minnesota, but 53% of the actual money is on the Kings — a classic sign of "sharp" money. This suggests experienced bettors believe Sacramento’s recent home over trends and fourth-quarter scoring bursts will push the total past 240, or that Minnesota’s defense will tire in the final minutes. It’s not a pick against the spread — it’s a play on pace and fatigue.
Is the Over or Under more likely in this game?
Despite Minnesota’s slower pace, the Over is the stronger play. Sacramento’s last 29 home games have seen the total go Over 19 times, including 19 of their last 28 second-half totals. With Sabonis out, their defense is porous, and Minnesota’s transition game thrives in chaos. The last meeting (124-110) went Over. Expect a similar pace — and a final score near 238-242.
Why do analysts recommend Naz Reid’s points total?
Naz Reid has averaged 12.5 points in his last two games against Sacramento this season. With Sabonis out, the Kings lack a true rim protector, and Minnesota will likely feed Reid early to exploit mismatches. His 9-point game against Phoenix was an outlier — he’s been a consistent 12-15 point scorer in the last month. The -122 odds make this a strong value play.
What’s the significance of Sacramento losing the first quarter?
Sacramento has lost the first quarter in six of their last seven home games against Minnesota — and in six straight overall this season. That means they’re always playing catch-up, forcing them into a faster, riskier style. Minnesota thrives in transition. The early deficit doesn’t just hurt morale — it changes how the Kings play, opening the door for Minnesota to control tempo and pace.
Could this game affect playoff seeding?
Absolutely. Minnesota is currently fighting for a top-four seed in the West — a first-round bye is within reach. A win here keeps them in the conversation. For Sacramento, a win would be their first back-to-back victories of the season and could spark a late surge with Sabonis potentially returning in January. This isn’t just a game — it’s a momentum swing for both franchises.
