When the Denver Broncos clinched their fifth straight win last Sunday, they didn’t just move to 8-2 — they stamped themselves as the team to beat in the American Football Conference. By Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, the Broncos sit atop the playoff picture, according to Sports Illustrated, with the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Buffalo Bills trailing closely behind. The sixth spot? Still murky — listed only as "Los..." in the SI projection, leaving fans guessing whether it’s the Los Angeles Chargers or the Los Angeles Rams clinging to life. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens — undefeated in their last six — are quietly rising from the middle of the pack, now seen as a dark horse threat despite not being ranked in the top six.
The AFC Playoff Landscape: Top Six vs. The Contenders
According to Sports Illustrated’s Week 11 projection, the AFC playoff bracket is locked in a way we haven’t seen since 2021. The Broncos, led by quarterback Justin Fields (yes, that Justin Fields — traded from Chicago in the offseason and suddenly looking like a franchise savior), have outscored opponents by 127 points this season. The Patriots, at 7-3, are riding a four-game win streak, but their defense has given up 28+ points in three of their last five games. The Colts? A surprise. After losing their first three, they’ve won seven of eight, with rookie running back Jalen Tolbert becoming the league’s most efficient red-zone threat. The Steelers, despite a shaky offensive line, are winning with defense — their secondary has intercepted 14 passes this year, second only to Buffalo.
But here’s the twist: ESPN’s standings, while seemingly chaotic, tell a different story. They don’t rank teams 1–6. Instead, they start at No. 11 — and that’s where the Baltimore Ravens appear, unranked but clearly in the conversation. That’s because ESPN’s list tracks teams just outside the top six, showing the race for the final wild card is a bloodbath. The Miami Dolphins (11), Cincinnati Bengals (12), Las Vegas Raiders (13), New York Jets (14), and Cleveland Browns (15) are all within one game of each other. The Ravens, at 7-3, are tied with the Bills for the second-best record in the AFC — yet they’re not even in the top six on SI’s list. Why? Tiebreakers. And nobody’s talking about them.
Why the Confusion? Two Systems, One Reality
It’s not a mistake. It’s a feature. Sports Illustrated is showing the current playoff bracket as it stands — the six teams that would make it today. ESPN is showing the playoff race as it’s unfolding — who’s climbing, who’s falling, who’s one loss away from elimination. The NFL’s own NFL.com page, titled "2025 NFL Playoff Picture," describes its content as including "the latest team performance stats and playoff eliminations." But here’s the catch: no team has been mathematically eliminated yet. Not one. Not even the Jets, who’ve lost four of five. The league’s official site doesn’t say who’s out — it just says who’s still in. And that’s the point.
The NFL’s seven-team-per-conference playoff format, introduced in 2020, was meant to keep more teams alive longer. This season, it’s working perfectly. Of the 16 AFC teams, 12 are still within two games of the final playoff spot. That’s unprecedented. In 2023, by Week 11, five teams were already eliminated. This year? Zero. The math is tight. The tiebreakers — head-to-head, division record, strength of victory — are all in flux. And that’s why the "Los..." entry in SI’s list feels so frustrating. It’s not an error. It’s a signal: the sixth seed is still up for grabs.
What’s Next? The Final Five Weeks
The next five weeks are a minefield. The Broncos face the Patriots in Week 13 — a potential AFC Championship preview. The Colts play the Steelers in Week 12. The Ravens have back-to-back games against the Bengals and Browns — two teams they’ve beaten in the last two seasons. And the Jets? They host the Bills in Week 14. Win that one, and suddenly New York is in the conversation. Lose it, and their season might unravel.
What’s not being said? The injury reports. The Broncos’ star linebacker, Barry Church, missed last week with a hamstring strain. The Patriots’ offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis Jr., is rumored to be on the hot seat after three straight losses in December last year. The Colts’ offensive line has given up 18 sacks in the last three weeks. These aren’t just stats — they’re ticking clocks.
Why This Matters Beyond the Standings
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about momentum. It’s about how the NFL’s new playoff structure is reshaping the entire season. Teams aren’t tanking anymore. They’re fighting for every game. The Ravens, who missed the playoffs last year, are now a top-three seed contender. The Raiders, who were supposed to be rebuilding, are suddenly in the mix. And the Broncos? They’re not just leading — they’re redefining what a contender looks like in 2025.
The league’s media partners — Sports Illustrated, ESPN, and NFL.com — aren’t contradicting each other. They’re complementing each other. One shows the current reality. One shows the future possibility. One shows the official truth. Together, they paint a picture of a season that’s still wide open. And that’s what makes football in November so beautiful.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the sixth playoff spot listed as "Los..." in Sports Illustrated’s projection?
The "Los..." entry refers to either the Los Angeles Chargers or the Los Angeles Rams, both of whom are tied at 5-5 and fighting for the final wild card. The ellipsis indicates the team name was truncated in the source material, likely due to formatting constraints. Neither team has clinched the spot — and both face tough schedules in the final five weeks.
How can the Baltimore Ravens be unranked in the top six but still considered a top contender?
The Ravens are 7-3 — tied with Buffalo for the second-best record in the AFC — but they’re behind the Broncos, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers in tiebreaker order due to divisional record and head-to-head results. ESPN’s list starts at No. 11 because it tracks teams on the bubble, not the current bracket. The Ravens aren’t ranked in the top six because the system prioritizes current seeding, not overall record.
Are any teams mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet?
No. According to NFL.com’s playoff picture, no team has been eliminated as of Week 11. Even the 3-7 New York Jets still have a 4.3% chance to make the playoffs under current projections. The NFL’s expanded format keeps more teams alive longer — a deliberate shift from past seasons to extend competitive relevance into December.
Why don’t the standings include win-loss records or point differentials?
The provided excerpts are summaries, not full standings. The complete data — including records, point differentials, and strength of schedule — exists on NFL.com and ESPN’s full standings page. Media outlets like Sports Illustrated simplify the data for readability, focusing on seeding rather than detailed metrics. The full context is available, but not in these specific snippets.
Is this playoff picture likely to change before Week 18?
Absolutely. In the past five seasons, the top seed in the AFC has changed hands at least twice between Weeks 11 and 17. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs climbed from No. 4 to No. 1 in the final three weeks. With five games left and 12 teams still in contention, the final standings could look completely different — especially if injuries strike or a team goes on a hot streak.
Why are there no NFC teams in these standings?
The provided excerpts from Sports Illustrated and ESPN focus exclusively on the AFC, as the original source material did. The NFC playoff picture is being tracked separately, and its standings are likely just as competitive. The NFL’s format splits the conferences, so each has its own seven-team bracket — meaning the NFC’s race is happening in parallel, just not covered in these snippets.
